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| | |-+  Is The Euro's Consolidation A Base?
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Author Topic: Is The Euro's Consolidation A Base?  (Read 15 times)
susanaP
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« on: July 25, 2018, 05:38:31 AM »

Speculators in the futures market are still net long the euro. They have not been net short since May 2017. In the spot market, the euro approached $1.15 in late May and again in mid June. Last week it dipped below $1.16 for the first time in July and Trump's criticism of Fed policy saw it recover. On Monday it reached $1.1750 before retreating. On the pullback, it held the 61.8% retracement of the recovery (~$1.1640).

Many frustrated dollar bears think the euro is basing and anticipate a breakout to the upside, spurring a recovery that leads to $1.20 by year-end. The technical case is clear. At $1.1850 – seen in mid June – the euro already retraced 38.2% of the decline that began in mid April, near $1.2415. The 50% retracement is near $1.1960 and the 61.8% retracement is around $1.2070. The technical indicators such as the Slow Stochastics and MACDs on the weekly charts are supportive. In other pair the dkk to euro rate at 7.45029 with down trend.

While this is possible, we see the technical position a bit differently. The Great Graphic below shows how the euro has been tracing a triangle or wedge pattern after the April-May leg down. It is most often a continuation pattern. A break to the downside would give measuring objective near $1.12. However, it remains a few weeks from the apex and this is consistent with continued range-bound activity.
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